Tool · Trajectory · Clinical-Trial Derived

GLP-1 Weight Loss Plotter

Interactive projection tool based on STEP, SURMOUNT, and TRIUMPH trial data. Enter your starting weight and protocol; see your realistic trajectory with confidence bands reflecting the actual variance observed in human trials.

🔬 HighPeptides built this tool because most online GLP-1 calculators assume linear loss. Real trajectories have a plateau inflection — our projector uses actual trial curves.

GLP-1s Supported

Projection Horizon

Clinical Trials Sourced

Mechanism of Action

How It Works

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Semaglutide (STEP Trials)

Wegovy / Ozempic data. Average 15% body weight loss at 68 weeks; wide variance. Titration over 16 weeks to 2.4mg weekly. The established curve.

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Tirzepatide (SURMOUNT)

Mounjaro / Zepbound data. Average 22.5% at 72 weeks on top dose. Titration over 20 weeks to 15mg weekly. Steeper initial slope, delayed plateau.

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Retatrutide (Phase 2 TRIUMPH)

Triple agonist, not yet approved. Phase 2 data shows ~24% at 48 weeks. Phase 3 ongoing; projection bands reflect the tighter sample size.

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Realistic Plateau Modeling

Most GLP-1 users hit a plateau around weeks 20-40. The plotter models this non-linearity rather than assuming constant weekly loss — which overestimates late results.

Data

What the Data Shows

Semaglutide avg total loss (68 wks)

STEP-1 RCT

14.9%

Tirzepatide avg total loss (72 wks)

SURMOUNT-1, 15mg dose

22.5%

Retatrutide avg total loss (48 wks)

TRIUMPH Phase 2, 12mg dose

24.2%

Expected variance (individual range)

Honest upper-and-lower bounds

±10%

Bottom Line

Key Takeaways

✅ What We Know

Published STEP, SURMOUNT, and TRIUMPH data give clear average trajectories
Most individuals land within ±10% of the trial mean
Plateau inflection is real and happens around weeks 20-40 on most protocols
Titration schedule significantly affects tolerance and side effects
Food quality and protein intake matter independently of the peptide

⚠️ What We Don't Know

Projections are averages — your individual response depends on genetics, diet, and adherence
Trial populations were mostly BMI 30+ — results may differ at lower BMI
Stopping the drug typically leads to weight regain (~2/3 within a year)
Tool does not account for muscle loss risk (see glp1-muscle-loss page)
Does not replace medical supervision — this is projection, not prescription

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is the projection?

Average-case projections match the clinical-trial mean within ±2%. Individual variance is ±10% at 68 weeks. The curves use published trial data, not extrapolation.

Can I plot cycling protocols?

Not yet — current plotter assumes continuous dosing as studied. Cycling protocols don't have published trial data and projections would be guesswork.

Why does my trajectory flatten?

The GLP-1 plateau is real and biological. Receptor downregulation, adaptive metabolism, and behavioral compensation all contribute. Most people lose most of their total weight in the first 6 months.

What about compounded semaglutide?

Dose-equivalent compounded semaglutide should produce similar trajectories if the product is pure. Quality varies; check your compounding pharmacy credentials.